NFL Playoff Time

Sorry about the dearth of posts. It's been a nobilarious time over here at Temp Central and I've been alternatively considering various homicidal schemes and counting the money as it rolls in. But, we've reached a breathing point, which was timed mighty nicely since an ubernob just eradicated a bunch of work that took half a day to do and I was pondering the various ways to ply his flabby flesh into the dishwasher and lock his ass in there on heated dry for all eternity.

Which, of course, leads me to the subject of the day: NFL Playoffs.

Who can win the NFC for the right to get slaughtered by Indianapolis in the Super Bowl? Well, when it comes down to it, I think only three teams have a real shot: Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Washington. One thing the playoffs don't like are finesse teams. And the Giants, Seahawks, and Panthers are finesse teams. When the Panthers went to Chicago in November, it only took a couple of swats to the face before the Bears had control. Teams like that aren't built to win in the playoffs, especially with Jake Delhomme on the road. The first team that smacks Hasselback to the ground or stuffs Shaun Alexander is going to find paydirt against Seattle. Likewise for the Panthers and Giants.

(Special Note: NFL coaches are notoriously not much smarter than the average kitchen table. All bets are off if one of my three favorites don't play physical football against the finesse teams.)

As an aside, and as a prelude to the rest of the postseason, I must take umbrage with the sheeplike behavior of the wider sports media re: Rex Grossman. As some of you may know, the Chicago Bears won the NFC Central division on the strength of their defense. They can run the ball a little bit, but their quarterback play is, in a word, atrocious. Perennial injury threat Rex Grossman, the man who missed almost all of his first two pro seasons to injury only to break his ankle in this, his third season, and miss the first 14 games, has now taken the helm from the incumbent starter Kyle Orton. This "bold" move has led to a cacophony of media voices claiming that Chicago now has the ability to win the Super Bowl because:

a) the defense is awesome
b) Grossman is vastly superior to Orton; and,
c) the Ravens won the Super Bowl a few years ago with a similar formula.

It's my duty, to beat that booty.

a) The Defense

It's awesome, there's no doubt about that. But as good as the 2000 Ravens? Maybe in some measures but in one critically important area they're not even close: yards-per-carry against. This stat is a measure of how many yards an opposing rusher gained on average per attempt. The 2000 Ravens allowed an amazingly low 2.69 YPA. The 2005 Bears, a good, but not unworldly 3.6 YPA. (The Seahawks, by comparison, have an identical average.)

The Bears defense is great. I saw them play at Soldier Field this year. They can turn a game quick. But the playoffs is about running the football and I'm just not sold on the Bears ability to do that. So, lets shelve the talk of this being the second coming of the 2000 Ravens until they actually get to the Super Bowl.

b) Grossman vs. Ortman.

A couple things to note: Orman is a vastly more experienced NFL QB than Grossman. Ortman might be a rookie, but in 3 seasons Grossman has played in exactly 8 games. That doesn't mean he's worse than Ortman, but it does mean he hasn't had to face the adversity of throwing three INTs in a game, for example.

Statistically, the two QBs are pretty similar. Neither would be classified as "good" by any standard and the moniker "decent" might also be out of reach. That being said, Grossman is probably moderately better than Ortman, but as the Wolf famously quipped in Pulp Fiction, "Let's not suck each other's (members) just yet." A moderate improvement from incredibly weak to less incredibly weak a Super Bowl Contender does not make. Even more worrying for Bears fans is that Grossman has played in exactly 2 games this year and thrown exactly 39 live balls.

If I'm a Bears fan, I'm not just worried that Grossman will get clobbered and reinjured, I'm worried that he's expected to do too much.

c) Ravens Model

The Ravens won in 2000 with Trent Dilfer at QB. Dilfer is the prototypical game managing QB. He doesn't do anything bad, but also doesn't kill you either. The theory is, dominant defense + QB that doesn't kill you = Super Bowl victory. Sorry Charlie, Dilfer was vastly better than Grossman when he won the Super Bowl in at least two ways: he was a 7 year veteran and he completed 60% of his passes (versus 51% for Grossman).

Plus, the other clear weakness of the Ravens model is that the strategy depends on the defense getting a lead early and then the QB not killing you. If the Bears have to come from behind to win, well, I don't think they can.

So, no, Da Bears won't win the Super Bowl this year, but they might come close.

Weekend Matchups

Saturday kicks off the wildcard round and my beloved 'Skins are taking on the fighting Bucs down in Tampa Bay. As I'm completely partial in this matchup (and feel that the Skins were robbed the first time they played), I think the Skins will win this one. The Skins physical offensive line versus a slim, yet feisty Bucs D will create problems. The Bucs love to play the Cover 2, which is basically a form of the zone, a defense that plays to the strengths of a speedster like Moss. If Brunell can deliver the ball to Moss in space, he'll make the big plays.

On the defensive side of the ball, the hype is all about Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams for the Bucs. Short and sweet is my retort: 20 rushes, 10 yards. The Redskins defense is a runstuffing defense that just dominated against the Bucs running game in November. I expect more success for Williams defense.

The bottom line: I don't think the Bucs can effectively run the football against the Redskins. That means we win. Washington 28, Tampa Bay 20.

In the other NFC matchup, we have the truly unpredictable New York Giants-Carolina Panthers game. Both teams were victim to sportswriters infatuation disease and have been a constant source of annoyance tothis Redskins fans all season. Fortunately, the Skins dominated the Giants in December, finally exposing two things: the Giants defense stinks and Eli Manning can't beat a good team by himself. I like the Panthers in this one, 20-10.

Over in the AFC, we have two easy predictions. First, the Steelers take a dominant ground game into Cincinnati. So far, the media tide seems to favor the Steelers. Pitt has had a great run to get to the playoffs playing physical defense and doing what they do - running the football. Most people appear to be forgetting two things: Pittsburgh only has two quality wins this year (at San Diego, Cincy) and that the Bengals beat the Steelers in Cincinnati on December 4th, 38-31. Beating bad teams (or the NFC's vastly overrated Bears team) doesn't make you the favorite when the game is in Cincinnati. Bengals 33, Steelers 27.

Finally, the defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots take on Jacksonville. Everybody else is saying it, so I will too. Jacksonville hasn't beaten a good team since October, had the weakest schedule of any playoff team, and doesn't really do anything good on offense. Pats 20, Jags 13.