Wednesday, March 12, 2008

The Numbers don’t lie

For the Delegate Count:

“States” Won: Obama 29 (incl. Texas, DC, US Virgin Islands, and Democrats Abroad), Clinton 13 (incl. American Samoa)

Tie: New Hampshire, Florida, Michigan, Missouri

Delegate Count (Average): Obama 1556 (1405 Pledged), Clinton 1435 (1202 pledged)

Average Lead for Obama: 121

Total Pledged Delegates Distributed (or awaiting distribution): 3006

Percent of Pledged Delegates won by Obama (with Edwards): 46%

By Clinton (with Edwards): 39%

Percent of Pledged Delegates won by Obama (post Edwards): 52%

By Clinton (post Edwards): 46%

Pledged Delegates Remaining: 566

Percent that Clinton would need to tie Obama in pledged delegates: 60%

For the Popular Vote:

“States” won: Obama 29.5, Clinton 14.5 (Texas is split since I have not the data)

Not relevant: Florida, Michigan

Popular vote estimate: 13,278,372 Obama, 12,576,210 Clinton

Difference: Obama +702,162

States still to announce vote totals: Iowa, Nevada, Washington, Maine

States Remaining Estimate:

States Remaining: PA, Guam, Indiana, NC, WV, KY, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, SD

Delegate estimate based on previous results (without Edwards): Obama 294, Clinton 260

States Obama expects to win: Guam, NC, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, SD

States Clinton expects to win: PA, WV, KY, Puerto Rico

States that could swing to Obama: Puerto Rico (caucus)

States that could swing to Clinton: Indiana

Obama has won every month. He is leading in the pledged delegate count and the combined count (including super delegates). He has won more than twice as many states. His lead in delegates is essentially insurmountable. He is winning the estimated popular vote with a lead that is also likely insurmountable. Of the states remaining, Obama will likely win 6 of 10. Failing someone catching Obama in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, this race is over.



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