Friday, February 08, 2008

The Math

I've read this in a number of places and it's going to be the common story over the next week or so, so I'll forgo the links and just tell it like it is:

For either HRC or Obama to win, they would have to win the nomination roughly 70% of the remaining pledged delegates. Not. Gonna. Happen. Best guess, they're gonna finish up with about 1600 votes each, well short of the required total. That means brokered convention or nobbery in Michigan/Florida, or a back room deal. No matter the outcome, it's looking very crapilicious.

In a year in which the Dems have everything going for them, we come to this. The GOP candidate is settled. They've got now to November to get their organization in place and spread their message. The Dems are going to keep fighting to the end and for what? So that cigar smoking white men can broker a deal in a back room?

If the Dems don't make a decision until the end of August, that's bad news for the on the ground operations that need to be in place to get out the vote and win in Nov. I'm getting a bit worried here.


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